Look to the East
It’s done. The elections to the House of Councillors in Japan are over. They confirmed the rise of the far-right Sanseito party, which went from 1 to 13 seats. This result, while impressive, remains below the most optimistic forecasts. Non-coalition right-wing parties, such as the DPfP and the new Conservative Party of Japan, also recorded notable advances, while the main opposition party, the CDP (left), stagnates. It failed to capitalize on the slowdown of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and emerged weakened from the election.
The macro point
Three areas to watch this week: 1) Elections in Japan are not expected to change the situation for the yen. The decline continues as before. 2) Monetary status quo in the eurozone. However, we expect a rate cut in September. 3) The European Union has signed a very unbalanced trade agreement with the Americans: a 15% tariff on all European goods, commitment to buy more American equipment, and invest 600 billion dollars in the USA.
Technical point
On the foreign exchange market, volatility is limited, which is often the case at this time of year. We do not expect major trend changes in the coming weeks: the EUR/USD is on an upward slope, the EUR/CHF continues its consolidation phase, rise for the EUR/CNH (Chinese yuan) and for the EUR/GBP, target at 175 for the EUR/JPY which could be reached in the fall.
The supports and resistances displayed below respectively indicate the low and high points within which the rates should evolve during the week. | Weekly Supports | | Weekly Resistances | |
|---|
| S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1545 | 1.1600 | 1.1922 | 1.1966 |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8509 | 0.8545 | 0.8699 | 0.8722 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9209 | 0.9256 | 0.9400 | 0.9411 |
| EUR/CAD | 1.5713 | 1.5790 | 1.6000 | 1.6031 |
| EUR/JPY | 168.85 | 170.90 | 173.99 | 175.00 |
Announcements to follow
As every year, we take a break in August. It is an opportunity to thank you warmly for your loyalty. We will see you again, with a touch of impatience, on September 1st! If you wish to schedule an exchange at the beginning of the school year with our trading room to better prepare your hedging for 2026, click on this link: schedule a meeting with the trading room. Many monetary policy meetings this week. But the monetary status quo should prevail each time, both on the part of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of Canada (BoC), and the BoJ. The possible introduction of reciprocal customs taxes by the Trump administration from August 1st should be the main point of attention. At this stage, only three countries have reached an agreement with Washington: the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and China (even if not everything is finalized). In the case of Europe, a very imbalanced trade agreement was reached Sunday night. The European Union (EU) will suffer customs taxes of 15% on all goods and commits to buying more American military equipment and investing $600 billion in the American economy. In short, the EU has been routed... Below you will find the publications and events that should have a major impact on the currency rates evolution.
| Day | Time | Country | Indicator | What to expect? |
|---|
| 07/30/2025 | 05:00 | JAPAN | Central bank meeting | Key rate unchanged at 0.50%. |
| 07/30/2025 | 15:45 | CANADA | Central bank meeting | Key rate unchanged at 2.75% |
| 07/30/2025 | 20:00 | USA | Central bank meeting | Key rate unchanged at 4.50% |
| 08/01/2025 | 11:00 | EURO | First inflation estimate (July) | Previous at 2% year-on-year. |
| 08/01/2025 | 14:30 | USA | Employment report (July) | Previous at 4.1% |
The information presented in this publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a sales offer, or a solicitation to purchase, and should never serve as a basis or be considered as an inducement to engage in any investment.