Return to Calm The information presented in this publication is provided purely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, and should not serve as the basis or be considered as an incentive to engage in any investment. The macro point Return to CalmThe Macro PointThe foreign exchange market has entered a period of relative calm. Economic indicators are few, generally in line with expectations, and all major central banks are on autopilot. This was notably the case with the American Federal Reserve last week. J. Powell indicated that the central bank will continue its asset purchase program as long as necessary, at the current pace of $120 billion per month. As we have repeatedly stated for months, the phase of ultra-accommodative monetary policy is likely to last for years on both sides of the Atlantic.On the vaccination front, the United Kingdom and the United States are ahead compared to continental Europe, which should lead to a faster economic recovery. At the end of last week, the total number of vaccine doses administered per 100 individuals (including both first and second doses) reached 19.4 in the UK and 12.9 in the United States. Conversely, Spain is only at 4.6 vaccinations per 100 individuals, Italy at 4.5, Germany at 4, and France at 3.3. If the vaccination process continues at the same pace across the Channel, the United Kingdom should have vaccinated 75% of its population by May. Conversely, a similar level in France would not be reached until summer 2023. Obviously, the pace of vaccination should accelerate in continental Europe in the coming weeks, but everything indicates that an exit from restrictive measures will take much longer than expected. Like France, some countries will certainly want to prioritize the economy over health by postponing strict measures like lockdowns as much as possible. As feared, the arrival of vaccines has not been a miracle solution. Adequate logistics and a sufficient quantity of doses are still necessary to vaccinate quickly. Technical point On the level of the main pairs of the foreign exchange market, there have not been any very large moves. It is also noted that trading volumes remain low due to a lack of significant market news. The key currency pair for operators, the EURUSD, appreciated by 0.3% weekly, still remaining within its recent bounds, between 1.20 and 1.22. In the short term, we do not anticipate a sustained exit from this zone. All news (U.S. stimulus plan, the difference between the U.S. and Eurozone in the vaccination process, etc.) has already been priced into the market's offered rates. As long as there is no movement from the U.S. Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, we should observe relative stability of the EURUSD.The euro is also stable against other major currencies: the EURJPY pair has remained nearly unchanged weekly (+0.04%), while the EURCHF remains in the 1.07-1.08 range. Regarding the EURGBP, the decline is only 0.33% over the same period.The supports and resistances shown below respectively indicate the low and high points within which rates should evolve during the week.SUPPORTSWEEKLYRESISTANCES WEEKLY S2S1R1R2EUR/USD1.18601.19551.23001.2419EUR/GBP0.85490.86690.88410.8910EUR/CHF1.06551.07301.09091.1000EUR/CAD1.49551.51821.55051.5636EUR/JPY125.65126.31128.97129.03For personalized advice on trends and exchange rate coverage, contact our trading room: Announcements to follow This week should look remarkably like the past week. The economic calendar is a bit busier, but it will mostly be minor indicators. The ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany for February will be the only major announcement in the coming days. The consensus is for a drop to 60, linked with the extension of the lockdown until early March in Germany, compared to a previous figure of 61.8. This statistic can cause some intraday volatility on the EUR/USD pair if there is a significant discrepancy between the final figure and the figure expected by consensus. Apart from the ZEW index, the other indicators of the week will be the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index and the German manufacturing PMI. The impact on the foreign exchange market should be marginal.Below you will find publications and events expected to have a major impact on currency rate developments.DAYTIMECOUNTRYINDICATORWHAT TO EXPECT?16/0211:00ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)Drop to 60.0 from 61.8 previously.18/0214:30Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February)Expected decline to 22.0 from 26.5 previously.19/0209:30Manufacturing PMI (February)The consensus expects a rise to 57.5, confirming that the manufacturing sector has been largely spared in recent months by the latest restrictions to fight the pandemic.Did you like this content? Share it!