The verdict is in The information presented in this publication is communicated to you purely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, and should not be used as a basis or considered an incentive to engage in any investment. The macro point It's back-to-business for central banks. There are some market rumors about a possible—but unlikely—rate cut by the Swiss National Bank as early as this week. For others, notably the U.S. Federal Reserve, it's the status quo that's expected to prevail. It is becoming increasingly clear that the major central banks of developed countries will begin their rate-cutting cycle in June. Who said there was no international coordination of monetary policies? Let's start with some very good news. The decline in maritime freight rates is confirmed. The Drewry Composite, which tracks the cost of freight for the eight main global trade routes, is down by nearly 680 dollars over six weeks. This doesn't fully erase the near 2000-dollar surge that occurred at the beginning of the year due to Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea. But it's on the right track. Barring a sudden reversal, the decline is expected to continue in the coming months, reducing inflationary risk on the international trade front. Moreover, traffic disruptions at the Suez Canal do not seem to have caused significant supply chain disruption, and even less port congestion. The average wait time for a ship to unload merchandise in Europe is five days (compared to a peak of over twenty days during COVID). Now, let's turn to the bad news. Inflation in the United States has rebounded. In February, the core inflation smoothed over three months rose to 4.4% from 4.0% previously. The six-month figure reached 3.8%. These are not low enough levels to trigger a rate-cutting cycle across the Atlantic. It will take time. The market understands this. The probability of a rate cut at this week's Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting is close to zero. It is hardly higher for May (probability at 16% according to the money market). It is only next June that the Fed might finally cut rates. There is another piece of bad news. Real wages continue to decline in the eurozone. In recent months, the European Central Bank (ECB) has justified its wait-and-see approach while all indicators point to a rapid rate cut due to fear of a price-wage spiral. Things are not looking good. The ECB’s internal indicator of wage pressures is falling. It dropped to 3.8% from 4%. In practical terms, this means companies are revising down wage increases. It's logical in a gloomy economic context. One might think that the ECB will finally decide to cut rates. It's unlikely. Consensus expects a first cut, probably small, only next June. It seems that the ECB doesn't want to be the first major Western central bank to ease its monetary policy. It leaves the lead to the Fed. This is a serious error. A cut in the cost of money is necessary in the eurozone, particularly to support the commercial and residential real estate market. Across the Atlantic, one might even wonder if it makes economic sense to cut rates in the coming months when the economy is very resilient. In the first quarter, U.S. growth is expected to reach 2%. Conversely, in France, it is expected to barely reach 0.2% over the same period according to INSEE's forecast. The verdict is in. As we indicated last week, our conviction this year is that the huge growth differential between the two sides of the Atlantic will be a structural factor supporting the U.S. dollar (as capital will be recycled in the U.S. seeking high returns). We do not belong to the analysts who predict a sustained and imminent bearish cycle for the greenback. Lastly, several major international banks adjusted their forecasts last week regarding a first rate cut across the Channel. Morgan Stanley considers a cut by the Bank of England (BoE) as feasible as early as May. Citigroup bets on June (previously August). It wouldn't be absurd for the UK to coordinate its rate-cutting phase with the United States and the eurozone. For the foreign exchange market, this could mean reduced volatility—which has already been the case since the beginning of the year. Technical point In the forex market, movements are relatively limited. The main pairs continue to hover near levels of recent weeks: 1.57 for EUR/CAD, 161.00 for EUR/JPY, and 0.96 for EUR/CHF. Implicit volatility remains low across almost all major pairs. We expect the long-term trend to remain bearish on EUR/USD. We see nothing that could push the pair beyond 1.12. We predict a broad range between 1.07 and 1.12 for the coming months. The supports and resistances shown below respectively indicate the low and high points within which the rates should evolve during the week.Weekly SupportsWeekly ResistancesS2S1R1R2EUR/USD1.06901.08801.10801.1112EUR/GBP0.83550.84110.86550.8701EUR/CHF0.93990.94550.96980.9745EUR/CAD1.44551.45911.48891.4911EUR/JPY157.98159.00163.12164.00 Announcements to follow The upcoming week should remain calm on the macroeconomic front. Inflation data across the Atlantic is unlikely to provide additional information regarding the pace of rate cuts. Everything has already been said by Powell before Congress. We expect macroeconomics to continue confirming the outperformance of the US economy, which is a decisive advantage for the dollar against all other currencies. Below are the publications and events expected to have a major impact on the evolution of currency rates.DayTimeCountryIndicatorWhat to expect?03/19/202404:30AUSCentral bank meetingNo change. There is a beginning of risk returning to an inflation rise. But the rate-cutting process is still ongoing.03/20/202419:00USACentral bank meetingNo change. A first rate cut is planned for June.03/21/202409:30SUICentral bank meetingNo change. A first rate cut is planned for Q3 (probably September).03/21/202413:00UKCentral bank meetingNo change. A first rate cut is planned for Q3 (probably September).