The Word of the Year 2021: Logistics The information presented in this publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a sales offer, or a solicitation to buy, and should not be used as a basis or considered as an inducement to engage in any investment. The macro point The word of the year 2021: LogisticsThe macro pointThe word of the year 2021 will be 'logistics.' Now that a vaccine has been found, suitable infrastructures must be in place to quickly vaccinate the population. At this level, three countries stand out: the United States, the United Kingdom, and also Israel. To date, around 1.2 million people have been vaccinated against the coronavirus in the United States, about one million in the UK, and approximately one million in Israel (at a rate of about 115,000 vaccinations per day). The pace is slower in France where vaccination began only a week ago, particularly due to supply relying heavily on Sanofi, which is experiencing some difficulties in developing a vaccine, and strong state interventionism preventing the rapid deployment of healthcare infrastructures capable of accommodating the public across the entire territory. In the next two quarters, the return to economic normalcy will closely depend on the ability to reach the herd immunity threshold set between 60% and 75% of the population (according to the latest studies, this threshold would be around 75% in light of the recent mutation of the virus initially observed in the UK). The countries that first succeed in reaching this threshold will enjoy a decisive competitive advantage over others and can expect a much quicker recovery in activity due to the near-disappearance of restrictive measures. Thus, as you will have understood, we are facing a very heterogeneous economic recovery worldwide this year. Asia, which should continue to capitalize on the Chinese recovery, as well as the Anglo-Saxon countries, should stand out this year, while the return to growth in continental Europe is likely to be slower, with social distancing measures likely to be maintained at least until the end of the summer. Technical point In the foreign exchange market, unsurprisingly, there was little movement last week. The main pairs continued to hover close to their levels in recent weeks: 1.22 for EUR/USD, 1.08 for EUR/CHF, 0.89 for EUR/GBP, and 126 for EUR/JPY. Volatility was relatively contained on the EUR/USD pair, with a fluctuation range of 130 points between 1.2150 and 1.2280. In the absence of macroeconomic indicators and central bank meetings, technical levels and trading robots were the main drivers of the foreign exchange market. The supports and resistances shown below indicate respectively the low and high points within which prices should evolve during the week. SUPPORTSWEEKLYRESISTANCES WEEKLY S2S1R1R2EUR/USD1.20631.21241.23181.2445EUR/GBP 0.85250.87890.91540.9318EUR/CHF 1.06101.07051.09071.0975EUR/CAD 1.53001.53401.57741.5858EUR/JPY 124.81125.56127.05127.80For personalized advice on trends and foreign exchange coverage, contact our trading room: Announcements to follow This week, traders' attention will mainly be on two events. The first is the traditional meeting that takes place every first Friday of the month. The U.S. employment report should confirm a marked slowdown in economic activity in December, due to a resurgence of coronavirus cases in the United States. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.8% of the labor force, compared to 6.7% in November - marking the first increase since its peak in April at 14.7%. Moreover, job creations are expected to drop significantly according to economists, with only 100,000 new jobs created in December compared to 245,000 in November. However, if these poor figures are confirmed, the impact on the foreign exchange market should be minimal. Indeed, since these figures were collected by the Department of Labor, the U.S. Congress has reached an agreement on an ambitious stimulus package, with a main marker being the sending of a check of nearly $2000 to American households (an amount initially wished by President Trump). This stimulus plan should therefore allow for sustained recovery in the first quarter of this year, which will also be amplified by the speed of the vaccination process. In this context, several banks have revised their growth forecast for this quarter upwards. Thus, Goldman Sachs is now expecting a rebound in activity to +5% in the first quarter compared to +3% previously.Finally, the senatorial election in Georgia will take place tomorrow. It is a strategic electoral step for the Biden presidency. If the Democrats manage to win the election, as polls seem to indicate, they will be able to control both chambers of Congress, which would give President-elect J. Biden much more latitude to carry out his campaign's economic program, including his promises on tax increases for the wealthiest and implementing the climate agenda. Even if this election is likely to have little immediate effect on the currency market, its scope remains decisive for the next four years. Below you will find the publications and events expected to have a major impact on exchange rate movements. DAYTIMECOUNTRYINDICATORWHAT TO EXPECT?01/0516:00ISM Manufacturing PMI (December)Expected to decrease to 56.5 from 57.5 previously.UndefinedSenatorial Election in GeorgiaA Democratic victory would allow them to control both chambers of the U.S. Congress and hence significantly facilitate the task for President-elect J. Biden01/0716:00ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (December)The consensus is for a figure of 54.5 compared to 55.9 previously.01/0814:30Employment Report (December)The official unemployment rate (also called U-3) is expected to rise slightly to 6.8%, and non-farm job creation is also expected to slow, to 100,000.Did you like this content? Share it!