Uncertainty The information presented in this publication is provided purely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, a sales offer, or a solicitation to buy, and should not under any circumstances serve as a basis or be taken as an incentive to engage in any investment. The macro point Faced with the war in Ukraine, central banks are reacting in a disordered fashion. First, there is the camp of the cautious. Several central banks opted for the status quo in monetary policy over the past week, citing uncertainty related to Ukraine, among other reasons. This is the case with the Central Bank of Malaysia. The European Central Bank (ECB) is also in this camp. This Thursday's meeting should be a non-event. Several members of the Governing Council, the body that decides on rate changes and asset purchase programs, have called for caution in recent days. They primarily wish to assess the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on the stability of the European banking and financial sector before adjusting monetary policy if necessary. The ECB's head, C. Lagarde, will certainly emphasize this point during her speech scheduled for Thursday afternoon.There is also the adventurous camp, prominently featuring the Bank of Canada (BoC). The war has not changed its plans. As expected, the BoC raised its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% last week. Moreover, it hinted that more increases are coming to combat inflationary pressures (inflation in Canada reached 5.1% year-on-year last January). It must be acknowledged that the situation in Canada is very different from that in the eurozone. The country is not dependent on Russia for energy supplies at all. Trade relations are limited. Finally, geographically, there is an ocean that separates them.Halfway between these two camps is the American Federal Reserve (Fed). J. Powell, the head of the institution, advocated maintaining the rate hikes in March during his biannual testimony before Congress. He said he is "inclined to support a 25 basis point increase." Barring a last-minute surprise, other FOMC members should align with this position. The possibility of a more pronounced rate hike, around 50 basis points, is now in the past. The American central bank wants to send a clear message to the financial markets regarding its intention to fight inflation. At the same time, it wants to keep some maneuvering room to assess more precisely the effects of the war in Ukraine on the global economy and international trade. At this stage, there are few certainties. Powell also acknowledged that it is "not yet possible to know" if the war in Ukraine will affect the Fed's monetary tightening process.The macroeconomic consequences are difficult to assess immediately. Some economic institutes provide figures, but they should be taken with caution. The situation is evolving rapidly on the ground in Ukraine. The Rexecode institute, close to employers' associations, estimates that French growth could be cut by 0.8 points this year because of the war. This means that GDP could increase by only 3.2% in 2022 against an initial government forecast of 4%. It's an order of magnitude. It won't be painless in any case. Others are much more pessimistic. The Swiss-origin bank Lombard suggests the eurozone could enter a recession this year. In any case, it is clear that the longer the war continues, the more significant economic disruptions will be in maritime transport, commodities (energy, agricultural products), and financial markets as a whole. This will cost points in growth.In the span of about ten days, we've moved from a post-Covid crisis recovery looking promising (except for the already present inflation issue) to a new, geopolitical crisis causing global repercussions.On the foreign exchange market, volatility rebounded sharply at the end of last week. That's why the fluctuation ranges for the coming week are very large (table below). The euro is experiencing a decline even more significant than at the start of the Covid crisis. It's a free fall. The euro depreciated by 2.5% last week against the U.S. dollar, 2.6% against the Swiss franc and the yen, and 2.1% against the Canadian dollar. The euro also fell significantly against the British pound. The pair fell below 0.83 for the first time since the beginning of the year. Everything indicates that the downward trend will continue. Traders rightly consider the euro to be the currency most penalized by the war. For now, a technical rebound is not on the agenda. There would have to be a cease-fire announced or negotiations advancing more seriously, which is off the table as we write these lines. The technical supports below should be closely monitored in the coming hours.The supports and resistances displayed below indicate respectively the lows and highs within which the rates should evolve during the week.SUPPORTSWEEKLYRESISTANCESWEEKLYS2S1R1R2EUR/USD1.07301.08341.11761.1330EUR/GBP0.80200.81550.83540.8420EUR/CHF0.99371.00291.02961.0470EUR/CAD1.35301.37201.42261.4434EUR/JPY122.08124.10130.79133.01This week, unsurprisingly, the foreign exchange market will continue to evolve according to information on the war in Ukraine. New financial and economic sanctions from Europeans against Russia are in the pipeline. They could be announced mid-week. Economic indicators are likely to take a back seat, even when they are important. The Consumer Price Index in the United States in February is one of this week's major statistics. Analyst consensus expects it to fall to 7.3% year-on-year. It is still at a very high level which forces the Fed to act. Finally, as we have indicated above, the ECB meeting should hold no surprises. The institution should limit itself to stating that it is ready to act if conditions deteriorate due to the war (especially in terms of financial stability).Below you will find the publications and events that should have a major impact on currency rates.DAYTIMECOUNTRYINDICATORWHAT TO EXPECT?08/0311:00Last estimate of GDP in Q4 2021Increase of 3.7% year-on-year.09/0316:00JOLTS report on new job openings (January)Consensus at 10.300M – close to records.10/0313:45Central bank meetingUpdate on economic projections and maintenance of the current monetary policy.14:30Consumer Price Index (February)The consensus expects a decrease to 7.3% year-on-year. But beware, the consensus was heavily mistaken for the January figure which came out significantly higher at 7.5%.11/0316:00University of Michigan Confidence Index (March)Expected increase to 67.5 from 62.8 previously.